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Google officially announced the Nexus One today, and it seems pretty cool.  I haven’t had a chance to play with one yet, but by most accounts, it’s worth checking out.  I believe it will be a successful device, along with the Motorola Droid and the HTC Droid Eris.  However, there seems to be a lot of sentiment that this is playing out like the PC vs Mac wars a decade or so ago, and that slowly app developers (and in-turn users) will all gravitate towards the more open Android platform.  The argument is that Microsoft excelled because it was hardware agnostic and did not control the ecosystem (thus allowing it to innovate), whereas Macs struggled because they controlled the entire experience (here’s a good take on this).  In the mobile marketplace, the argument continues, Android will eventually win out because it’s completely open.  Never mind the over simplicity (i.e. Jobs left, the hardware started to suck, etc.), there are some good parallels to make the analogy fit.

I, however, completely disagree.  This market is much, much more nuanced.  The reason is that there are two major differences between different phones that affect user behavior – input mechanism and screen size.  For example, here’s a list of the different screen resolutions for Android devices:

800 x 480
600 x 800
320 x 480
240 x 320
854 x 480
240 x 400
1024 x 600

And Android is only now becoming popular.  Some Android devices have keyboards, some are touch only, some have pointers, some have extra buttons, and some have sensors others don’t.  With the computer, everyone had a similar keyboard and mouse.  Users had different size monitors, but the big difference was that you could get away with cropping and not using the entire monitor for computer apps.  On a phone, where the screen is already so small, not using the entire space is much more significant.

This is the same issue that plagues Blackberry right now (well, that and terrible API implementation/documentation).  Whether it’s the Curve, Bold, Pearl, and so on, every device has a different resolution, and so apps need to be tailored appropriately.  I’m not the first to realize this is an issue (official Android documentation and another post).  The iPhone, on the other hand, has one screen resolution 320 x 480, and one input mechanism, touchscreen.

That all said, I believe that Android will thrive, but it won’t be the same way as Mac vs PC.  Bill Gurley’s piece (a must-read, in my opinion) begins to get at the nuanced differences, but Android is still a smartphone platform, which puts it head-to-head with the iPhone.   It is very lucrative for manufacturers and carriers to use Android instead of paying a licensing fee (they actually receive ad revenue share for using Android).  But for consumers and users of apps on both devices?  I still think the iPhone will be a better experience.

Two additional interesting factors to consider – if feature phones (i.e. non-smartphones) begin to adopt Android in full-scale, and the continued success of the iPod Touch and iTunes store (remember, you can’t use your iTunes music on a non-Apple device).

Google is a remarkable company.  They’ve flipped the business model in numerous ways, because they can.  But what’s happening in the mobile space is becoming a both exciting and troubling.  I love how they give away navigation data, or that they pay manufacturers to use their phone.  Soon they will subsidize your laptop, and maybe even your TV.  It’s giving folks who don’t normally have access to some of this technology a way to buy it.  And in the mobile space, with their new “phone”, they are trying to break the carrier-driven model (which I argue would come anyways once LTE rolls around, as most carriers will then be on the same technical platform).  To Google, it’s all about getting the accessing the world’s information and letting you search it quickly (and of course selling ads).

But soon, a single company could provide your software for your email, browser, OS, TV, and mobile phone.  That’s every single way I consume information, purchase products, and communicate with my friends and family.  A single advertising company.

Right now, they are a fairly friendly privacy company.  But what happens if growth slows, or there’s a change in leadership, and the company is pressured to seek alternate revenue streams.  I’m not sure I’m ready for a single company to own/control access to all this data.  I like convergence but not this much.  The question as a consumer is where do we draw the line?  Google has not made many major missteps with privacy (though last week’s comments were awfully close).  But what if that changes?

The thing is this – there should be a large competitor that’s challenging Google and trying to perform the same convergence, and there isn’t a clear one yet.  Yahoo tried with Connect TV/Digital Home, but they have been struggling.  Microsoft has been trying to push Media Center for awhile, and their mobile platform is confusing at best.

Apple seems the best poised.  Although no one has said it, the new Google device is their answer to the iPod Touch, a tremendous device that can be used for a variety of things, including as a phone (and I’m guessing an HD camera soon).  But Apple tends to attack verticals.  Regardless, I will continue to use my Apple phone, my Windows laptop, and my garbage software on my TV.

I hope some startups and incumbents come up with ways to challenge Google on all fronts.

FYI – I’m long Apple.

Last night, I was driving home from my sister’s place in the east bay, and after checking Google Maps and seeing all green roads (i.e. no traffic), I decided to take 880/Bay Bridge to get back to SF.  Little did I know it was green because there was no traffic on the bridge (due to the closure).  Had I known beforehand, I would have saved a full hour.  In a moment of tragic comedy (okay, it was not that bad, but good thing I had company), Caltrans decided to alert me after I passed the traffic-filled toll plaza on the San Mateo Bridge that the “Bay Bridge is closed, seek alt route.”  Thanks.

I’m not alone when I say I’m often running late to lunches and social gatherings.  Or oftentimes I get delayed when I need to travel out of the office for a meeting.  The one thing that’s constant in all these situations – my phone.  My mobile device always knows where I am.  My calendar always knows where I should be.  Why can’t these two merge?

Now, I know this is difficult on the iPhone since there are no background apps, making it difficult to keep updating location (though some folks have found workarounds) .  But on Android, this should be relatively easy.  With the proliferation of LBS, my phone knows where I am at all times.  It could tell, for example, that if it’s 8:45 AM and I am more than 15 miles away (or there’s traffic) from my 9 AM calendar appointment location, that I will be late.  It could then send a text/email to the other attendees (or at least the organizer).  Little late to dinner?  Perhaps an integration to OpenTable.  Flight late, meaning I can work later?  An integration to TripIt would be help.  Yes, many folks have admins to help with this, but it really should be automated.  Last night, my phone clearly could have known I was heading home to SF via the Bay Bridge, and alerted me of the closure (the news was all over Twitter, which I unfortunately did not check before leaving).

None of this is ground-breaking, or extremely tough to do.  Google is probably best positioned to do this, but perhaps there’s a startup already hard at work (I hope so).  I’m looking forward to the day when all these services are combined and I can comfortably know I’m being alerted.  In the meantime, good luck to Caltrans on the repairs, and all commuters who usually take the Bay Bridge daily.

Apple announced today that over 2 billion apps had been downloaded – quite an amazing feat in little over one year.  Since I started using an iPhone, I realize that my favorite part is the App Store.  The touch screen and slim profile are nice, but it’s really the store that makes me love the device.  Perhaps I’m unique.  As a kid, I used to love getting the Sunday newspaper, especially on a snowy day, when the newspaper was cold and crisp.  After perusing the sports section and the comics, I loved leafing through the CompUSA and Circuit City flyers, especially the clearance and sales sections.  I could never buy enough cheap peripherals or hard drives.

The app store has taken over my previous excitement that I felt about the flyers.  Now I download Waze or buy Snapture rather than a trackball mouse or screen cleanser.  Instead of waiting for Sunday, I can just load up the store on a whim and see if there are any cool apps.  I wish there was more turnover in top apps, but the fact is that it’s far and away better than Blackberry’s App World (and I hear also Android’s and Palm’s, though I have limited first-hand experience).  It has the instant gratification element.  I wish that the iPhone allowed developers more flexibility, but as long as people keep releasing great apps, I will be interested.  And that’s the key – the moment another platform’s app store gets more traction, and their apps become more innovative than the iPhone’s apps in terms of quality and quantity, I will most likely switch over.

UPDATE: As I was loading up my blog to post this, I saw a very relevant argument that Blackberry needs to step up their efforts in the app store.  Worth a read…

When Amazon announced its acquisition of Zappos yesterday, I was pretty excited.  Here were two of my favorite companies joining forces. I have become a huge advocate of Amazon (especially their Prime service) over the past couple years, as they continue to show innovation and reduce the pain of shopping (this doesn’t account for the Kindle and AWS, which I discuss here).  I’d say 90% of my online shopping goes through Amazon due to price/ease.

Zappos, on the other hand, is a more recent fad of mine.  I heard Tony Hsieh speak at TiEcon earlier this year, and it was the best keynote I can remember, especially given that I was able to stay awake (without coffee) on a Saturday morning with very little sleep.  And he was quite inspirational, though he didn’t talk just about Zappos or his background.  I actually bought a book on his recommendation – Happiness Hypothesis (which I will blog about sometime in the future), ironically on Amazon.

Their value prop is awesome (free unlimited shipping and returns) and their service is impeccable.  While they focused on shoes (competing with Amazon’s Endless.com), they had already expanded into apparel, and it was only a matter of time before they moved to other types of goods that Amazon offered.  I loved where the direction they were pushing the market in, and was hoping that I’d eventually be able to choose between Zappos and Amazon for that next gadget or toy.

The question I wonder is whether, as a consumer, is it good that these companies are now one and no longer competing.  As Hsieh colloquially put it in his letter (btw I like his sense of humor), this was less an “acquisition” and more like “Amazon and Zappos sitting in a tree…”  In my opinion, Zappos’ customer service cred kept Amazon honest, but now that they are “sitting in a tree” together, who is challenging them, and pushing even their vaunted reputation higher?  I’m sure there are smaller companies out there that are evolving, but to reach their scale it requires significant capital.  Perhaps Ebay can challenge them but given their CEO’s recent statement, it looks like they’re going to push their Paypal offering (which has a terrible customer service reputation, fair or not), which to me means they may be deshifting their focus against Amazon.

Anyways, I will leave you with the presentation Hsieh gave to TiEcon – it gets really interesting around slide 36 (though even the beginning is great):

I am probably not the typical phone user.  I rely on my device for a ton of things throughout the day and night, anywhere from email, maps, news, shopping, entertainment, and, of course calling people.  My Blackberry 8800 and then Bold served me well in all these functions – I used their integrated email, Google Maps, Viigo, Amazon App, the camera, UberTwitter, Facebook, and more, all at least once a day.  When the iPhone initially came out, I thought it was a cool toy, but nothing that could replace my daily needs.  Once the SDK was released, I started to grow a bit envious.  Cool apps were developed left and right.  I needed to buy an iPod Touch to help satisfy my gadget needs.

A couple things kept me excited about Blackberry – their App Store and OS5.  I thought here was a chance for Blackberry to demonstrate their full potential.  The Bold was a fairly powerful device when utilized to it’s max (see Google Maps, Vlingo, Amazon, Shazam apps), so it seemed like it could be somewhat competitive.  The problem is that Blackberry was originally built as a messaging device, targeted at enterprises, with lots of security built-in.  They did a good job of building a platform around it, but it wasn’t scalable.

Then the App Store came around – which tried to imitate Apple’s.  Soon after, OS5 pictures leaked out.  Here was a chance to even the playing field – and they didn’t come close.  The app store made installing apps easier (though you needed to know how to download the App Store app ironically), but OS5 looked just like 4.6, 4.2, etc, with some additional features.  They’ve tried to woo developers (see Blackberry Fund), but it hasn’t really worked.  The reason is not lack of devices- there are many more Blackberries in the market than iPhones.  It’s that from everything I hear and see, it’s not easy to develop on Blackberry.  From the poorly documented API, large number of models, different versions of OS’s, etc, it’s just tough to manage.  And it doesn’t seem to be getting better (BGR wrote a great piece on this).

The one advantage I always thought I’d have over the iPhone was phone service quality.  But once calls started dropping (quite an understatement), I decided to give the Palm Pre on Sprint a try.  Knowing I could return the device within 30 days, I went out and bought a Pre.  My quick review-  it’s great product but needs to mature (and it will, in time).  webOS was awesome – they did a great job with the “cards” and multi-tasking.  I really liked how the mail and notifications popped on the bottom.  I liked how most things worked, although at times it felt a bit too cute.  Problem came down to the keyboard.  I did not like the keys – felt way to plasticky.  And I especially did not like how it slid out.  Everytime I needed to do something I had to flip out the keyboard – I felt like I was going to drop it and it just slowed things down.  It actually made me crave a virtual keyboard.  That’s when I decided to get the iPhone 3GS.

I’ve had it a couple days now, and I can’t imagine going back.  It’s weird, because I was once a hard core Blackberry user (convinced friends and family to get one).  But now – I’m going the other way.  If you can get over the lack of a physical keyboard (which isn’t terrible unless you write a ton of emails) and the non-removable battery (which wasn’t much worse than my Bold, though I carried a backup), there’s no comparison.  And while I still have nostalgia for my Bold keyboard and its build quality (mine survived a beating), if you crave features and functionality, the iPhone is the way to go.  Sorry, Blackberry.

FYI – I am long Apple, and have been for almost 2 years.

I don’t like cell phone contracts.  But maybe I should.  I recently bought a Blackberry Bold on AT&T and signed a two year contract.  Turns out that AT&T’s 3G network (as most AT&T subscribers can tell you) is beyond atrocious.  I should have returned the phone within 30 days, but I didn’t.  Now I’m in a quandary with no recourse, or so I thought.

The early termination fees (ETF) are there to inhibit switching, and they work well.  However, the contracts can actually work in your favor.  Most phones are subsidized around $100-$200 if you sign the contract.  Check out the below table, and you’ll find that over time, the ETFs become lower than the subsidized amount – i.e. it behooves you to buy a phone on contract as long as you don’t cancel within a couple months (depending on the carrier).   There are caveats (activation fees are meant to even it out, though these are sometimes negotiable), but at least we have the flexibility.

Ultimately, I still believe that cell phone service would be vastly improved if 1) we got rid of contracts altogether and 2) they shared a similar technology platform.  The carrier technology would then be a commodity (much to their chagrin) and service + cost would win customers (instead of devices, which is where the iPhone has done an extreme disservice to service quality-conscious customers,  as we have shown our buying choice can be based entirely on phones).

Problem is CDMA and GSM are both prevalent, however the evolution to LTE will help even the field (whenever that happens).  Contracts create (illusory or not) a feeling of stickiness.  If a carrier truly felt that they were good enough, they would allow customers to change whenever without ETFs.   Thing is, if contracts were eliminated, phones would be more expensive (though one could argue the market would be more efficient since platform barriers would be eliminated).  However, monthly plans would decrease, assuming that carriers currently make up subsidies over the life of the contract.  It’s an interesting conundrum.

Anyways, since I’m very seriously considering changing networks, I decided to look up all the return policies and ETFs, as I feel this is extremely relevant to what network I do end up on next.

* Another page on their website says 20 days. Phones activated in CA have 30 days.

** Only for contracts on or after June 28, 2008. No idea what is before that date.

*** Only for contracts after Nov 2, 2008. All contracts signed before subject to full amount.

I think I summarized a significant number of headlines.  I find these extremely unuseful.  I agree it’s a good idea to compare a new product to an old, incumbent.  However, what is not useful (to me at least) is to compare them in a black and white modicum.   It’s most prevalant with two products –  Google Search and the iPhone.  Every new company that has focus on search is compared to Google, and labeled as a Google-killer, or not.  Cuil was victimized by this.  Wolfram and Bing are newer examples.  For the iPhone, it’s the Blackberry Storm or the Palm Pre.

While most of these companies didn’t mind the publicity (at least before it started), it’s not fair for anyone involved.  the iPhone and Google Search were paradigm shifters.  When both came out, they transformed user behavior, and forced others in the market to follow suit.  The fact that we have to label something an x-killer means that it probably failed at killing x because it instantly reminds everyone of x.  Did anyone call the iPhone a Razr-killer?  Or the Google an Altavista-killer?

The other issue – not being a killer does not preclude success.  I would have a legitimate argument that Verizon is doing better than AT&T with the Storm.  Verizon sold 500,000 units the first month, and 1M units in the first two months (compare that to the iPhone 3G, which sold 2.4M in the first three months).  Verizon, for one, probably pays a significantly lower amount to RIM than AT&T does for the iPhone exclusivity.  Second, the margins for the network have to be MUCH better on Verizon.  Check out the recent AdMob metrics report – while  RIM represented 17% of smartphone sales, they only represented 9% of HTML traffic measured by AdMob.  Compare that to Apple – 8% of smartphone sales with 43% of the traffic.  The actual difference is probably worse – the report uses 2008 sales data as a proxy of  current market share.  Anyways, this defines success from the network perspective, not the consumer perspective, but I think it’s important that we keep that in mind (and as a consumer on AT&T’s network, I can tell you that more phone sales, especially iPhone sales, is ruining my experience and is about to drive me to another network).

One interesting article to check out – apparently we did miss that Google was a killer until it was already popular.

I use my phone a lot.  I’ve had a smartphone since the Palm Treo 600, and have grown more and more dependent on my mobile device since then.  I use it for phone calls, texting, google maps, reading news/rss feeds, MLB gameday audio, yelp restaurant reviews, and much more.  As the devices became more powerful, I found myself using it more and more often – even while driving.  Instead of looking up the location of a restaurant ahead of time, I’d just wait until I was closeby, and out comes the blackberry.  Instead of calling folks and telling them that I was running late, I’d text them.  Most of the time, I’d think nothing of it.  But then the LA-train texting accident happened (among other texting-related accidents), and I realized exactly how dangerous it was.  

Yet, even then, it still proved very difficult for me to stop the occasional driving text or lookup.  However, California recently passed a measure that makes it illegal to text while driving (a very, very smart law).  Enter voice-enabled mobile apps.  I’ve downloaded Vlingo, Tellme, Yahoo oneSearch, and Google Mobile, all of which are voice-enabled.  Google’s voice recognition only works for Google search queries, so it’s not very useful.  Tellme (recently bought by Microsoft) is solid for map lookups.  If you’re on the go, instead of typing “Pauline’s Pizza, SF”, you can say it, and it will display the results (which still requires a dangerous glance away from the road) and allow you to easily map it.  Tellme also allows for voice-prompted calls.  

Vlingo, however, is the best offering.  Their voice recognition, while still needing improvement, is impressive (Indian names do not work super well, I’m tempted to give all my friends very common English names in my phone book.  Or maybe I cannot pronounce Indian names correctly).  The program allows you to call friends, SMS text (accurately), google search, launch applications, and more.  It’s great – I can text and drive legally!   It would be useful if it would allow searches within Google Maps (my favorite GPS app), but I’m sure that will come soon enough.  Vlingo’s technology also powers Yahoo’s oneSearch application, which only allows for lookups – i.e. it’s quite useless (it should at least work with Yahoo Maps).

All the apps could use work in playing back audio results.  Vlingo will replay SMS texts before it sends them out (thus avoiding awkward misses in the voice transcribing), but it needs to support playback of queries and location searches to avoid dangerous glances away from the road.

Vlingo has been around for awhile, but they recently upgraded and it’s voice-recognition is now much more usable compared to the rest.  Yes, it costs $17 (they have a limited free version) – but that’s nothing compared to the enhanced safety (I rarely need to look at my phone now, it’s all voice-recognition).  All the other apps are free, so I highly recommend trying/using at least one of these if you own a car- you never know when you’ll need it.   Or you could just avoid using your phone altogether while driving.

I had no intention to get a Kindle 2, mainly because of its high price tag.  But my nephew (aka my sister and brother in law, seeing as my nephew is not even 1 year old) bought one as a surprise – and I love it.  At first, I can’t deny I was disappointed.  It didn’t include any accessories (for 350 you think you’d get a cover – very Apple-esque of them, although at least it did have an AC/USB adapter), there’s no light on the device, you can’t replace the battery, and the screen seems a bit small.  

But then I started playing with it.  The screen is phenomenal.  When I first opened it, I mistakenly thought the picture (a portrait of a poet) was just part of the plastic covering the screen – I only discovered it was the display 5 minutes later when I looked at the screen.  The e-ink is phenomenally clear and easy to read.  Downloading books via the device or online is a breeze.  The battery life seems great (only charged it once so far).  

But two features seem really cool to me.  First, it’s extremely easy to open up PDF and DOC files – just send them via email to your username@kindle.com and it shows up right on your Kindle home screen.  Second, it has a web browser built in (under the experimental section).  That’s right, it might be crude and only work on certain sites (the mobile versions), but I think it’s awesome that I can read ESPN articles as if it were printed out in paper.  And it’s free.  Pretty awesome.  Sure there are other devices out there, but none seem as cool as this.  I love my iPod touch – but I use that mostly for games.  This device encourages reading – something much more useful and beneficial.  Congrats Jeff Bezos and the Amazon team, you can count me as impressed.  Now work on cutting the price.